I just finished moving my development onto a beautiful new Mac Book Pro this weekend. Awesome machine.
Although Apple products show great design, they seem to have another advantage...
For most companies, I seem to have this force of expectations that far exceeds the time to market of any of their new technology driven products.
So, do we really seem to be moving to any kind of technological singularity in the next 20-30 years?
It seems that to have a technological singularity, the technological releases would have to exceed our expectations. I don't really see this happening. I would say that the only reason technology is evolving so quickly, is because our expectations demand it ... and we are able to envision it quicker.
So, if technology is advancing exponentially, then it is doing so because our expectations or visions are pulling it along.
However, I do see a force that could cause this balance to change. It seems that the only way that any technological singularity will occur, is if companies/people start keeping better secrets. Because the technological singularity seems to be really about not knowing what is next... not being able to predict.
I am a big Apple fan, but I think one advantage that Apple has is that they keep good secrets. This is quite different than Microsoft's marketing strategy of setting expectations well before they can even figure out what they are able to release.
So, it seems that any technological singularity will really only exist for those that do not know what others are doing. I don't think this can really happen without some mechanism to obstruct information flow. Hmmm, isn't this more difficult as people become more connected or will the mass of misinformation help provide this mechanism?
In the meantime...my new development machine rocks!